Huddersfield 2–1 Leeds: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Leeds

M. Hefele 89'

I. Brown 27'

C. Wood 35'

2/5/2017

Championship · Round 30John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Huddersfield25%

×Draw26%

Leeds50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchLeeds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.52

Huddersfield

0.99

Leeds

1.52

Leeds creates 54% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 33 away

1.10

creates per match

1.58

1.45

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.10

Leeds

1.58

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.45

Leeds

0.88

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Huddersfield-0.03on par

Leeds-0.06on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Leeds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

50%

Huddersfield or Leeds

74%

Draw or Leeds

75%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

9%

Leeds wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

63%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

26%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

8%

Leeds 1+ goals

78%

Leeds 2+ goals

45%

Leeds 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

33%

Leeds (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.45 · 14 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.88 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.10 + Leeds defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.99

Leeds attack 1.58 + Huddersfield defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Huddersfield scores more

25%

level

26%

Leeds scores more

50%

Leeds at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Mooy

Huddersfield · M

8.0

Match Events

19'

25'

27'

35'

62'

Alfonso Pedraza← S. Doukara

65'

J. Lolley← R. van La Parra

65'

73'

77'

81'

82'

E. O'Kane← Pablo Hernández

89'

90'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldLeeds

Overview

55%Possession45%

15Total Shots7

7Corners5

12Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots7

5On Target3

8Off Target1

2Blocked3

9Inside Box4

6Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

398Total Passes324

288Accurate Passes189

72%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls13

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

4Offsides1

Championship: Huddersfield 2–1 Leeds

Huddersfield beat Leeds 2-1 in Championship on February 5, 2017.

Goals: I. Brown (27'), C. Wood (35'), M. Hefele (89').

Huddersfield controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at John Smith's Stadium in Huddersfield.

Huddersfield vs Leeds — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Huddersfield 2–1 Leeds