Leeds 1–0 Fulham: Result & Stats | Premier League

Leeds

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fulham

L. Nmecha 90'

1/17/2026

Premier League · Round 22Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Leeds46%

×Draw25%

Fulham29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeedsExpected goals in this matchFulham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.21

Leeds

1.59

Fulham

1.21

Leeds creates 31% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 30 away

1.57

creates per match

1.11

1.31

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Leeds

1.57

Fulham

1.11

allows per match

Leeds

1.31

Fulham

1.61

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Leeds-0.15scores less

Fulham-0.24scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Fulham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Leeds or draw

71%

Leeds or Fulham

75%

Draw or Fulham

54%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+

24%

Fulham wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals

80%

Leeds 2+ goals

47%

Leeds 3+ goals

21%

Fulham 1+ goals

70%

Fulham 2+ goals

34%

Fulham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)

61%

Fulham (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Fulham away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.61 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.57 + Fulham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.59

Fulham attack 1.11 + Leeds defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Leeds scores more

46%

level

25%

Fulham scores more

29%

Leeds at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

28'

41'

56'

65'

66'

70'

77'

J. King← E. Smith Rowe

81'

81'

87'

88'

88'

J. Kusi Asare← R. Jimenez

90+5'

Jonah Kusi-Asare

90+4'

S. Bornauw← B. Aaronson

90'

L. Nmecha↳ E. Ampadu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeedsFulham

Overview

46%Possession54%

14Total Shots8

1.43Expected Goals (xG)0.39

7Corners3

6Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots8

5On Target1

8Off Target5

1Blocked2

10Inside Box5

4Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

402Total Passes477

311Accurate Passes388

77%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

0.12Goals Prevented0.12

Discipline

6Fouls11

1Yellow Cards5

8Offsides3

Match Recap: Leeds vs Fulham

Leeds beat Fulham 1-0 in Premier League on January 17, 2026.

Goals: L. Nmecha (90').

Fulham controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 14.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds.

Leeds vs Fulham — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Leeds vs Fulham