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Leeds vs Chelsea — Premier League 2026

Leeds
Leeds
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Chelsea
Chelsea
J. Harrison 69'
Rodrigo 37'
B. Aaronson 33'
8/21/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Leeds40%
×Draw25%
Chelsea35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leeds
1.52
Chelsea
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 33 away

creates per match

Leeds
1.59
Chelsea
1.51

allows per match

Leeds
1.31
Chelsea
1.45

finishing

Leeds-0.13scores less
Chelsea-0.12scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Leeds or draw
65%
Leeds or Chelsea
75%
Draw or Chelsea
60%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+
20%
Chelsea wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals
78%
Leeds 2+ goals
45%
Leeds 3+ goals
20%
Chelsea 1+ goals
76%
Chelsea 2+ goals
41%
Chelsea 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)
53%
Chelsea (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 24 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.59 + Chelsea defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Chelsea attack 1.51 + Leeds defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Leeds scores more
40%
level
25%
Chelsea scores more
35%

Leeds at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
J. HarrisonLeedsLeeds · M
8.3

Match Events

9'
Kalidou Koulibaly
33'
B. Aaronson
36'
Raheem Sterling
37'
Rodrigo↳ J. Harrison
61'
A. Forshaw← Marc Roca
64'
C. Pulišić← C. Gallagher
64'
H. Ziyech← Jorginho
69'
J. Harrison↳ Rodrigo
70'
L. Sinisterra← D. James
77'
B. Chilwell← M. Mount
83'
J. Gelhardt← Rodrigo
83'
S. Greenwood← J. Harrison
83'
M. Klich← B. Aaronson
84'
Kalidou Koulibaly
84'
Kalidou Koulibaly
87'
César Azpilicueta← R. Sterling

Possession

39%Leeds

Shots

12Leeds

Pass accuracy

46%Leeds

Statistics

LeedsChelsea
Overview
39%Possession61%
12Total Shots14
4Corners6
16Fouls15
Shots
12Total Shots14
6On Target3
4Off Target4
2Blocked7
9Inside Box9
3Outside Box5
Passing
39%Possession61%
318Total Passes494
227Accurate Passes405
71%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls15
0Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
1Offsides7

Match Recap: Leeds vs Chelsea

Leeds beat Chelsea 3-0 in Premier League on August 21, 2022.

Goals: B. Aaronson (33'), Rodrigo (37'), J. Harrison (69').

Chelsea controlled possession (61%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds, West Yorkshire.