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Leeds vs Chelsea — Premier League 2026

Leeds
Leeds
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Chelsea
Chelsea
R. Lukaku 83'
C. Pulisic 55'
M. Mount 4'
5/11/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 33Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Leeds41%
×Draw25%
Chelsea35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leeds
1.52
Chelsea
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 35 away

creates per match

Leeds
1.56
Chelsea
1.49

allows per match

Leeds
1.28
Chelsea
1.49

finishing

Leeds-0.12scores less
Chelsea-0.06on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Leeds or draw
65%
Leeds or Chelsea
75%
Draw or Chelsea
59%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+
20%
Chelsea wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals
78%
Leeds 2+ goals
45%
Leeds 3+ goals
20%
Chelsea 1+ goals
75%
Chelsea 2+ goals
40%
Chelsea 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)
54%
Chelsea (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.49 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.56 + Chelsea defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52

Chelsea attack 1.49 + Leeds defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leeds scores more
41%
level
25%
Chelsea scores more
35%

Leeds at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
M. MountChelseaChelsea · F
9.0

Match Events

4'
M. Mount↳ R. James
24'
Daniel James
30'
R. Loftus-Cheek← M. Kovačić
32'
Romelu LukakuGoal cancelled
37'
Junior Firpo← J. Harrison
43'
Kalvin Phillips
55'
C. Pulisic↳ M. Mount
59'
M. Klich← L. Bate
78'
J. Gelhardt← Raphinha
78'
H. Ziyech← C. Pulisic
78'
Azpilicueta← R. James
83'
R. Lukaku↳ H. Ziyech

Possession

32%Leeds

Shots

5Leeds

Pass accuracy

46%Leeds

Statistics

LeedsChelsea
Overview
32%Possession68%
5Total Shots17
1Corners4
10Fouls14
Shots
5Total Shots17
0On Target4
4Off Target10
1Blocked3
2Inside Box12
3Outside Box5
Passing
32%Possession68%
379Total Passes817
298Accurate Passes742
79%Pass Accuracy91%
Discipline
10Fouls14
1Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards0
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Leeds vs Chelsea

Chelsea beat Leeds 3-0 in Premier League on May 11, 2022.

Goals: M. Mount (4'), C. Pulisic (55'), R. Lukaku (83').

Chelsea controlled possession (68%) and registered 17 shots to 5.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds, West Yorkshire.