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Leeds vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

Leeds
Leeds
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Blackburn
Blackburn
K. Roofe 90+4', 90+1'
D. Williams 33' (OG)
C. Mulgrew 90', 47' (pen)
12/26/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 24Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Leeds59%
×Draw24%
Blackburn17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leeds
1.67
Blackburn
0.77

Leeds creates 117% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 59 away

creates per match

Leeds
1.97
Blackburn
1.01

allows per match

Leeds
0.53
Blackburn
1.38

finishing

Leeds+0.37scores more
Blackburn+0.06on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Leeds or draw
83%
Leeds or Blackburn
76%
Draw or Blackburn
41%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+
33%
Blackburn wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals
81%
Leeds 2+ goals
50%
Leeds 3+ goals
23%
Blackburn 1+ goals
54%
Blackburn 2+ goals
18%
Blackburn 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)
78%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.53 · 35 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.97 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.67

Blackburn attack 1.01 + Leeds defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Leeds scores more
59%
level
24%
Blackburn scores more
17%

Leeds at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
C. MulgrewBlackburnBlackburn · D
8.8

Match Events

33'
D. WilliamsOwn goal
44'
Jack Rodwell
47'
C. MulgrewPenalty
60'
J. Clarke← J. Harrison
62'
H. Reed← R. Nyambe
69'
J. Shackleton← L. Ayling
69'
R. Smallwood← J. Rodwell
75'
J. Rothwell← A. Armstrong
77'
Barry Douglas
85'
Darragh Lenihan
89'
Kalvin Phillips
90'
C. Mulgrew
90+1'
K. Roofe
90+4'
K. Roofe↳ Pablo Hernández

Possession

71%Leeds

Shots

24Leeds

Pass accuracy

59%Leeds

Statistics

LeedsBlackburn
Overview
71%Possession29%
24Total Shots8
6Corners2
13Fouls13
Shots
24Total Shots8
10On Target2
6Off Target4
8Blocked2
14Inside Box4
10Outside Box4
Passing
71%Possession29%
581Total Passes243
468Accurate Passes135
81%Pass Accuracy56%
Goalkeeping
0Saves8
Discipline
13Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Leeds vs Blackburn

Leeds beat Blackburn 3-2 in Championship on December 26, 2018.

Goals: D. Williams (33' o.g.), C. Mulgrew (47' pen, 90'), K. Roofe (90+1', 90+4').

Leeds controlled possession (71%) and registered 24 shots to 8.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds.