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Blackburn vs Leeds — Championship 2018

Blackburn
Blackburn
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Leeds
Leeds
12/9/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 20Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Blackburn33%
×Draw28%
Leeds39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.14
Leeds
1.27

Leeds creates 11% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 7 away

creates per match

Blackburn
1.22
Leeds
1.63

allows per match

Blackburn
0.92
Leeds
1.06

finishing

Blackburn-0.22scores less
Leeds-0.06on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Leeds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
61%
Blackburn or Leeds
72%
Draw or Leeds
67%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
13%
Leeds wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
68%
Blackburn 2+ goals
32%
Blackburn 3+ goals
11%
Leeds 1+ goals
72%
Leeds 2+ goals
36%
Leeds 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
46%
Leeds (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.92 · 20 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.06 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.22 + Leeds defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Leeds attack 1.63 + Blackburn defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Blackburn scores more
33%
level
28%
Leeds scores more
39%

Leeds at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Blackburn vs Leeds

Leeds beat Blackburn 2-0 in Championship on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn, Lancashire.