Leeds 1–0 Barnsley: Result & Stats | Championship

Leeds

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Barnsley

7/16/2020

Championship · Round 44Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Leeds60%

×Draw23%

Barnsley17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeedsExpected goals in this matchBarnsley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.81

Leeds

1.78

Barnsley

0.81

Leeds creates 120% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 76 away

2.03

creates per match

0.93

0.68

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Leeds

2.03

Barnsley

0.93

allows per match

Leeds

0.68

Barnsley

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leeds+0.00on par

Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Barnsley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Leeds or draw

83%

Leeds or Barnsley

77%

Draw or Barnsley

40%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+

35%

Barnsley wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals

83%

Leeds 2+ goals

53%

Leeds 3+ goals

26%

Barnsley 1+ goals

56%

Barnsley 2+ goals

19%

Barnsley 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)

78%

Barnsley (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.68 · 92 matches

Barnsley away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.54 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 2.03 + Barnsley defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.78

Barnsley attack 0.93 + Leeds defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Leeds scores more

60%

level

23%

Barnsley scores more

17%

Leeds at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff