Leeds 0–1 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Leeds

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Aston Villa

A. El Ghazi 5'

2/27/2021

Premier League · Round 26Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Leeds46%

×Draw25%

Aston Villa29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeedsExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.23

Leeds

1.60

Aston Villa

1.23

Leeds creates 30% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 32 away

1.57

creates per match

1.14

1.31

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Leeds

1.57

Aston Villa

1.14

allows per match

Leeds

1.31

Aston Villa

1.64

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Leeds-0.15scores less

Aston Villa+0.02on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Leeds or draw

71%

Leeds or Aston Villa

75%

Draw or Aston Villa

54%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+

24%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals

80%

Leeds 2+ goals

47%

Leeds 3+ goals

22%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

71%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

35%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)

61%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.64 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.57 + Aston Villa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.60

Aston Villa attack 1.14 + Leeds defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Leeds scores more

46%

level

25%

Aston Villa scores more

29%

Leeds at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

A. El Ghazi

Aston Villa · F

8.0

Match Events

5'

A. El Ghazi↳ O. Watkins

6'

Anwar El GhaziGoal cancelled

53'

E. Alioski← P. Struijk

61'

Tyler Roberts

61'

Matt Targett

63'

Mateusz Klich

64'

J. Harrison← Hélder Costa

71'

Pablo Hernández← T. Roberts

79'

M. Sanson← J. Ramsey

80'

Ahmed El-Mohamady

84'

Pablo Hernández

88'

Trézéguet← A. El Ghazi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeedsAston

Overview

69%Possession31%

13Total Shots9

7Corners5

14Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots9

3On Target4

5Off Target3

5Blocked2

7Inside Box6

6Outside Box3

Passing

69%Possession31%

517Total Passes227

413Accurate Passes137

80%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2