Leeds United U21 1–3 Sunderland U21: Result & Stats

Leeds United U21

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Sunderland U21

T. Pembélé 48' (OG)

N. Rusyn 39', 34'

H. Jones 16'

1/29/2024

League #702 · Group 1 - 15LNER Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Leeds United U2140%

×Draw22%

Sunderland U2139%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leeds United U21Expected goals in this matchSunderland U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.85

Leeds United U21

1.88

Sunderland U21

1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 5 away

1.75

creates per match

1.80

1.90

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Leeds United U21

1.75

Sunderland U21

1.80

allows per match

Leeds United U21

1.90

Sunderland U21

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leeds United U21+0.00on par

Sunderland U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds United U21 ↓

Sunderland U21 →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Leeds United U21 or draw

61%

Leeds United U21 or Sunderland U21

78%

Draw or Sunderland U21

60%

Winning margin

Leeds United U21 wins by 2+

21%

Sunderland U21 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Leeds United U21 1+ goals

85%

Leeds United U21 2+ goals

56%

Leeds United U21 3+ goals

29%

Sunderland U21 1+ goals

84%

Sunderland U21 2+ goals

55%

Sunderland U21 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Leeds United U21 (draw refunded)

51%

Sunderland U21 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Leeds United U21 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

Sunderland U21 away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Leeds United U21 attack 1.75 + Sunderland U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Sunderland U21 attack 1.80 + Leeds United U21 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Leeds United U21 scores more

40%

level

22%

Sunderland U21 scores more

39%

Leeds United U21 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leeds United U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

N. Triantis

16'

H. Jones↳ T. Pembélé

32'

Z. Johnson← N. Triantis

34'

N. Rusyn↳ C. Kelly

39'

N. Rusyn↳ C. Kelly

43'

D. van den Heuvel← H. Christy

48'

T. PembéléOwn goal

58'

M. McFadden← C. Allen

62'

T. Chiabi← C. Kelly

74'

J. Debayo

89'

H. Fieldson← H. Jones

Leeds

Sunderland

🥅A

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: S. Gardner

43'▲D. van den Heuvel←▼H. Christy

58'▲M. McFadden←▼C. Allen

Leeds United U21 substitutes

12Heuvel15McFadden16Diboe14Richards17Wilson

Manager: G. Murty

32'▲Z. Johnson←▼N. Triantis

62'▲T. Chiabi←▼C. Kelly

89'▲H. Fieldson←▼H. Jones

Sunderland U21 substitutes

14Johnson15Chiabi12Fieldson13Cameron16Ryder

League #702: Leeds United U21 1–3 Sunderland U21

Sunderland U21 beat Leeds United U21 3-1 in League #702 on January 29, 2024.

Goals: H. Jones (16'), N. Rusyn (34', 39'), T. Pembélé (48' o.g.).

The match was played at LNER Community Stadium in York, North Yorkshire.

Leeds United U21 vs Sunderland U21 — League #702 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #702: Leeds United U21 1–3 Sunderland U21