Leeds United U21 vs Southampton U21 — League #702 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Leeds United U2136%
Southampton U2143%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Southampton U21 creates 11% more chances
Season form · 20 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over75
- Under25
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes74
- No26
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Leeds United U21 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Leeds United U21 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches
Southampton U21 away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Leeds United U21 attack 1.75 + Southampton U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88
Southampton U21 attack 2.25 + Leeds United U21 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.08
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Southampton U21 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Southampton U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Southampton U21 substitutes
Head to Head
Leeds United U21 host Southampton U21 on Friday, 16 September 2022 at 18:00. The match is part of the League #702 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Leeds United U21 vs Southampton U21
Leeds United U21 beat Southampton U21 6-2 in League #702 on September 16, 2022.
Goals: P. Bamford (4', 35' pen, 53'), C. Summerville (17'), L. Cooper (42'), S. Perkins (56'), D. Ballard (70'), S. Bellis (88').
The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds, West Yorkshire.