Leeds United U21 2–2 Manchester United U21

Leeds United U21

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Manchester United U21

H. Gray 31'

A. Cresswell 28'

S. Mather 70' (pen)

S. Koné 67'

3/28/2025

League #702 · Group 1 - 23Thorp Arch Grange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Leeds United U2137%

×Draw24%

Manchester United U2140%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leeds United U21Expected goals in this matchManchester United U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.61

Leeds United U21

1.54

Manchester United U21

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

1.75

creates per match

1.33

1.90

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Leeds United U21

1.75

Manchester United U21

1.33

allows per match

Leeds United U21

1.90

Manchester United U21

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leeds United U21+0.00on par

Manchester United U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds United U21 ↓

Manchester United U21 →

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Leeds United U21 or draw

60%

Leeds United U21 or Manchester United U21

76%

Draw or Manchester United U21

63%

Winning margin

Leeds United U21 wins by 2+

18%

Manchester United U21 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Leeds United U21 1+ goals

79%

Leeds United U21 2+ goals

45%

Leeds United U21 3+ goals

20%

Manchester United U21 1+ goals

80%

Manchester United U21 2+ goals

48%

Manchester United U21 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Leeds United U21 (draw refunded)

48%

Manchester United U21 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Leeds United U21 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

Manchester United U21 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Leeds United U21 attack 1.75 + Manchester United U21 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Manchester United U21 attack 1.33 + Leeds United U21 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Leeds United U21 scores more

37%

level

24%

Manchester United U21 scores more

40%

Manchester United U21 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Manchester United U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

H. Ogunneye

23'

R. Chadwick-Chaplin

28'

A. Cresswell↳ C. Douglas

31'

32'

60'

67'

69'

70'

S. MatherPenalty

73'

J. Ngwashi← S. Mather

77'

J. Ngwashi

84'

J. Bailey← J. Moorhouse

89'

A. Cresswell

Leeds

Manchester

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Gray

Manager: S. Gardner

32'▲J. Richards←▼H. Gray

Leeds United U21 substitutes

15Richards14Moore12Grainger16Nfonkeu17Vincent

Manager: T. Binnion

60'▲Z. Baumann←▼J. Overy

73'▲J. Ngwashi←▼S. Mather

84'▲J. Bailey←▼J. Moorhouse

Manchester United U21 substitutes

15Baumann14Ngwashi12Bailey13Myles16Rowe

League #702: Leeds United U21 2–2 Manchester United U21

Leeds United U21 and Manchester United U21 drew 2-2 in League #702 on March 28, 2025.

Goals: A. Cresswell (28'), H. Gray (31'), S. Koné (67'), S. Mather (70' pen).

The match was played at Thorp Arch Grange in Wetherby, West Yorkshire.

Leeds United U21 vs Manchester United U21 — League #702 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #702: Leeds United U21 2–2 Manchester United U21