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Lee Man vs Eastern — AFC Cup 2018

Lee Man
Lee Man
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Eastern
Eastern
6/24/2022AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Chang Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lee Man60%
×Draw20%
Eastern19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lee Man
2.20
Eastern
1.17

Lee Man creates 88% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Lee Man
1.17
Eastern
1.00

allows per match

Lee Man
1.33
Eastern
3.22

finishing

Lee Man+0.00on par
Eastern+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lee Man ↓

Eastern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Lee Man or draw
81%
Lee Man or Eastern
80%
Draw or Eastern
40%

Winning margin

Lee Man wins by 2+
38%
Eastern wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lee Man 1+ goals
89%
Lee Man 2+ goals
64%
Lee Man 3+ goals
37%
Eastern 1+ goals
69%
Eastern 2+ goals
33%
Eastern 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lee Man (draw refunded)
76%
Eastern (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lee Man at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Eastern away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lee Man attack 1.17 + Eastern defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.20

Eastern attack 1.00 + Lee Man defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lee Man scores more
60%
level
20%
Eastern scores more
19%

Lee Man at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lee Man will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Lee Man 1–3 Eastern

Eastern beat Lee Man 3-1 in AFC Cup on June 24, 2022.

The match was played at Chang Arena in Buriram.