Lednické Rovne 2–2 TEMPO Partizánske

Lednické Rovne

FT

2 – 2

TEMPO Partizánske

4/24/2022

3. liga - West · West - 24Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lednické Rovne47%

×Draw23%

TEMPO Partizánske30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lednické RovneExpected goals in this matchTEMPO Partizánske

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.44

Lednické Rovne

1.84

TEMPO Partizánske

1.44

Lednické Rovne creates 28% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 17 away

1.04

creates per match

1.00

1.88

allows per match

2.65

creates per match

Lednické Rovne

1.04

TEMPO Partizánske

1.00

allows per match

Lednické Rovne

1.88

TEMPO Partizánske

2.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lednické Rovne+0.00on par

TEMPO Partizánske+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lednické Rovne ↓

TEMPO Partizánske →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Lednické Rovne or draw

70%

Lednické Rovne or TEMPO Partizánske

77%

Draw or TEMPO Partizánske

53%

Winning margin

Lednické Rovne wins by 2+

26%

TEMPO Partizánske wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Lednické Rovne 1+ goals

84%

Lednické Rovne 2+ goals

55%

Lednické Rovne 3+ goals

28%

TEMPO Partizánske 1+ goals

76%

TEMPO Partizánske 2+ goals

42%

TEMPO Partizánske 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Lednické Rovne (draw refunded)

61%

TEMPO Partizánske (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lednické Rovne at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.88 · 25 matches

TEMPO Partizánske away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lednické Rovne attack 1.04 + TEMPO Partizánske defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.84

TEMPO Partizánske attack 1.00 + Lednické Rovne defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lednické Rovne scores more

47%

level

23%

TEMPO Partizánske scores more

30%

Lednické Rovne at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lednické Rovne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff