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Lednické Rovne vs Slovan Duslo Šaľa — 3. liga - West 2020

Lednické Rovne
Lednické Rovne
FT
0 – 3
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
10/10/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 10Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Lednické Rovne33%
×Draw24%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lednické Rovne
1.38
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.59

Slovan Duslo Šaľa creates 15% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 85 away

creates per match

Lednické Rovne
1.04
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.31

allows per match

Lednické Rovne
1.88
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.71

finishing

Lednické Rovne+0.00on par
Slovan Duslo Šaľa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lednické Rovne ↓

Slovan Duslo Šaľa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lednické Rovne or draw
58%
Lednické Rovne or Slovan Duslo Šaľa
76%
Draw or Slovan Duslo Šaľa
67%

Winning margin

Lednické Rovne wins by 2+
15%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Lednické Rovne 1+ goals
75%
Lednické Rovne 2+ goals
40%
Lednické Rovne 3+ goals
16%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1+ goals
80%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 2+ goals
47%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Lednické Rovne (draw refunded)
44%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lednické Rovne at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.88 · 25 matches

Slovan Duslo Šaľa away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.71 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lednické Rovne attack 1.04 + Slovan Duslo Šaľa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.38

Slovan Duslo Šaľa attack 1.31 + Lednické Rovne defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lednické Rovne scores more
33%
level
24%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa scores more
42%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Slovan Duslo Šaľa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lednické Rovne vs Slovan Duslo Šaľa

Slovan Duslo Šaľa beat Lednické Rovne 3-0 in 3. liga - West on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Lednické Rovne.