Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lednické Rovne vs Považská Bystrica — 3. liga - West 2020

Lednické Rovne
Lednické Rovne
FT
1 – 4
Považská Bystrica
Považská Bystrica
6/6/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 12Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Lednické Rovne18%
×Draw21%
Považská Bystrica61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lednické Rovne
1.02
Považská Bystrica
2.06

Považská Bystrica creates 102% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

Lednické Rovne
1.04
Považská Bystrica
2.24

allows per match

Lednické Rovne
1.88
Považská Bystrica
1.00

finishing

Lednické Rovne+0.00on par
Považská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lednické Rovne ↓

Považská Bystrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lednické Rovne or draw
39%
Lednické Rovne or Považská Bystrica
79%
Draw or Považská Bystrica
82%

Winning margin

Lednické Rovne wins by 2+
6%
Považská Bystrica wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Lednické Rovne 1+ goals
64%
Lednické Rovne 2+ goals
27%
Lednické Rovne 3+ goals
8%
Považská Bystrica 1+ goals
87%
Považská Bystrica 2+ goals
61%
Považská Bystrica 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Lednické Rovne (draw refunded)
23%
Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lednické Rovne at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.88 · 25 matches

Považská Bystrica away — creates 2.24, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lednické Rovne attack 1.04 + Považská Bystrica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Považská Bystrica attack 2.24 + Lednické Rovne defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Lednické Rovne scores more
18%
level
21%
Považská Bystrica scores more
61%

Považská Bystrica at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Považská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Lednické Rovne 1–4 Považská Bystrica

Považská Bystrica beat Lednické Rovne 4-1 in 3. liga - West on June 6, 2021.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Lednické Rovne.