Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lednické Rovne vs Nitra II — 3. liga - West 2020

Lednické Rovne
Lednické Rovne
FT
1 – 1
Nitra II
Nitra II
8/9/20203. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 1Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lednické Rovne46%
×Draw23%
Nitra II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lednické Rovne
1.74
Nitra II
1.37

Lednické Rovne creates 27% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 7 away

creates per match

Lednické Rovne
1.04
Nitra II
0.86

allows per match

Lednické Rovne
1.88
Nitra II
2.43

finishing

Lednické Rovne+0.00on par
Nitra II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lednické Rovne ↓

Nitra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lednické Rovne or draw
70%
Lednické Rovne or Nitra II
77%
Draw or Nitra II
54%

Winning margin

Lednické Rovne wins by 2+
25%
Nitra II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lednické Rovne 1+ goals
82%
Lednické Rovne 2+ goals
52%
Lednické Rovne 3+ goals
25%
Nitra II 1+ goals
75%
Nitra II 2+ goals
40%
Nitra II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lednické Rovne (draw refunded)
60%
Nitra II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lednické Rovne at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.88 · 25 matches

Nitra II away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lednické Rovne attack 1.04 + Nitra II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.74

Nitra II attack 0.86 + Lednické Rovne defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lednické Rovne scores more
46%
level
23%
Nitra II scores more
30%

Lednické Rovne at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lednické Rovne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lednické Rovne vs Nitra II

Lednické Rovne and Nitra II drew 1-1 in 3. liga - West on August 9, 2020.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Lednické Rovne.