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Lechia Zielona Góra vs Polonia Warszawa — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Lechia Zielona Góra
Lechia Zielona Góra
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lechia Zielona Góra32%
×Draw22%
Polonia Warszawa46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.64
Polonia Warszawa
1.98

Polonia Warszawa creates 21% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.50
Polonia Warszawa
1.78

allows per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
2.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.78

finishing

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par
Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Zielona Góra ↓

Polonia Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Lechia Zielona Góra or draw
54%
Lechia Zielona Góra or Polonia Warszawa
78%
Draw or Polonia Warszawa
68%

Winning margin

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+
16%
Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals
81%
Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals
49%
Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals
23%
Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
86%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
59%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)
41%
Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Zielona Góra at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Polonia Warszawa away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.50 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.64

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.78 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more
32%
level
22%
Polonia Warszawa scores more
46%

Polonia Warszawa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Lechia Zielona Góra 0–4 Polonia Warszawa

Polonia Warszawa beat Lechia Zielona Góra 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Zielona Góra.