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Lechia Zielona Góra vs Piast Żmigród — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Lechia Zielona Góra
Lechia Zielona Góra
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Piast Żmigród
Piast Żmigród
3/26/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Lechia Zielona Góra50%
×Draw23%
Piast Żmigród28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.86
Piast Żmigród
1.33

Lechia Zielona Góra creates 40% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 35 away

creates per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.62
Piast Żmigród
1.49

allows per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.18
Piast Żmigród
2.11

finishing

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par
Piast Żmigród+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Zielona Góra ↓

Piast Żmigród →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Lechia Zielona Góra or draw
72%
Lechia Zielona Góra or Piast Żmigród
77%
Draw or Piast Żmigród
50%

Winning margin

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+
28%
Piast Żmigród wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals
84%
Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals
55%
Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals
28%
Piast Żmigród 1+ goals
74%
Piast Żmigród 2+ goals
38%
Piast Żmigród 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)
64%
Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Zielona Góra at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.18 · 102 matches

Piast Żmigród away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.62 + Piast Żmigród defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.86

Piast Żmigród attack 1.49 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more
50%
level
23%
Piast Żmigród scores more
28%

Lechia Zielona Góra at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lechia Zielona Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lechia Zielona Góra vs Piast Żmigród

Lechia Zielona Góra and Piast Żmigród drew 3-3 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Zielona Góra.