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Lechia Zielona Góra vs Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Lechia Zielona Góra
Lechia Zielona Góra
FT
1 – 1
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
P. Mycan 59'
R. Chwastek 11'
3/20/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Lechia Zielona Góra48%
×Draw24%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.73
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.28

Lechia Zielona Góra creates 35% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 69 away

creates per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.62
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.39

allows per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.18
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.84

finishing

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Zielona Góra ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lechia Zielona Góra or draw
72%
Lechia Zielona Góra or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
76%
Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
52%

Winning margin

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+
26%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals
82%
Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals
52%
Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals
25%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
72%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
37%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)
63%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Zielona Góra at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.18 · 102 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.62 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.73

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more
48%
level
24%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
28%

Lechia Zielona Góra at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lechia Zielona Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
R. Chwastek
59'
P. Mycan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lechia Zielona Góra vs Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Lechia Zielona Góra and Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 20, 2021.

Goals: R. Chwastek (11'), P. Mycan (59').

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Zielona Góra.