Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1–2 Lechia Zielona Góra

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Lechia Zielona Góra

D. Jarka 3'

V. de Oliveira Veneranda 80'

M. Loboda 40'

4/20/2022

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry37%

×Draw25%

Lechia Zielona Góra38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gwarek Tarnowskie GóryExpected goals in this matchLechia Zielona Góra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.48

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.45

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 103 away

1.49

creates per match

1.50

1.45

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.49

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.50

allows per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.45

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry ↓

Lechia Zielona Góra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or draw

62%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or Lechia Zielona Góra

75%

Draw or Lechia Zielona Góra

63%

Winning margin

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+

17%

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals

77%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals

42%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals

18%

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals

77%

Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals

43%

Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)

49%

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

Lechia Zielona Góra away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.49 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.45

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.50 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more

37%

level

25%

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more

38%

Lechia Zielona Góra at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lechia Zielona Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

D. Jarka

40'

M. Loboda

80'

V. de Oliveira Veneranda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff