Lechia Zielona Góra 0–1 Górnik Polkowice

Lechia Zielona Góra

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Górnik Polkowice

J. Rys 52'

10/29/2023

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 14Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Lechia Zielona Góra40%

×Draw25%

Górnik Polkowice35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lechia Zielona GóraExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.36

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.48

Górnik Polkowice

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 51 away

1.62

creates per match

1.55

1.18

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.62

Górnik Polkowice

1.55

allows per match

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.18

Górnik Polkowice

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Zielona Góra ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lechia Zielona Góra or draw

65%

Lechia Zielona Góra or Górnik Polkowice

75%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

60%

Winning margin

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+

19%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals

77%

Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals

43%

Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals

19%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

74%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

39%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)

54%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Zielona Góra at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.18 · 102 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.62 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.55 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more

40%

level

25%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

35%

Lechia Zielona Góra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lechia Zielona Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

R. Karmelita

52'

J. Rys

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff