Górnik Polkowice 2–0 Lechia Zielona Góra

Górnik Polkowice

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lechia Zielona Góra

5/18/2024

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 31Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Górnik Polkowice42%

×Draw25%

Lechia Zielona Góra34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchLechia Zielona Góra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.38

Górnik Polkowice

1.56

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.38

Górnik Polkowice creates 13% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 103 away

1.72

creates per match

1.50

1.26

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.72

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.50

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.26

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Lechia Zielona Góra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

66%

Górnik Polkowice or Lechia Zielona Góra

75%

Draw or Lechia Zielona Góra

58%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

21%

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

79%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

46%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

21%

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals

75%

Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals

40%

Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

55%

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

Lechia Zielona Góra away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.72 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.56

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.50 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

42%

level

25%

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more

34%

Górnik Polkowice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff