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Lechia Zielona Góra vs Barycz Sułów — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Lechia Zielona Góra
Lechia Zielona Góra
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Barycz Sułów
Barycz Sułów
L. Tumala 49'
W. Kacprzak 75'
P. Calinski 14'
2/15/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lechia Zielona Góra39%
×Draw23%
Barycz Sułów39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.73
Barycz Sułów
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.80
Barycz Sułów
1.67

allows per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.80
Barycz Sułów
1.67

finishing

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par
Barycz Sułów+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Zielona Góra ↓

Barycz Sułów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Lechia Zielona Góra or draw
61%
Lechia Zielona Góra or Barycz Sułów
77%
Draw or Barycz Sułów
61%

Winning margin

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+
20%
Barycz Sułów wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals
82%
Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals
52%
Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals
25%
Barycz Sułów 1+ goals
82%
Barycz Sułów 2+ goals
52%
Barycz Sułów 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)
50%
Barycz Sułów (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Zielona Góra at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Barycz Sułów away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.80 + Barycz Sułów defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Barycz Sułów attack 1.67 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more
39%
level
23%
Barycz Sułów scores more
39%

Lechia Zielona Góra at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lechia Zielona Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
P. Calinski
49'
L. Tumala
75'
W. Kacprzak
Lechia
Barycz
S. Mordal
Manager: S. Mordal
T. Horwat
Manager: T. Horwat

Friendlies Clubs: Lechia Zielona Góra 1–2 Barycz Sułów

Barycz Sułów beat Lechia Zielona Góra 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 15, 2025.

Goals: P. Calinski (14'), L. Tumala (49'), W. Kacprzak (75').