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Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Radomsko — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Lechia T. Mazowiecki
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
FT
1 – 4
Radomsko
Radomsko
10/4/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Stadion im. Braci Gadajów

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lechia T. Mazowiecki47%
×Draw24%
Radomsko29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.72
Radomsko
1.29

Lechia T. Mazowiecki creates 33% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 15 away

creates per match

Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.77
Radomsko
1.33

allows per match

Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.26
Radomsko
1.67

finishing

Lechia T. Mazowiecki+0.00on par
Radomsko+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia T. Mazowiecki ↓

Radomsko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lechia T. Mazowiecki or draw
71%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki or Radomsko
76%
Draw or Radomsko
53%

Winning margin

Lechia T. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
25%
Radomsko wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
82%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
51%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
25%
Radomsko 1+ goals
72%
Radomsko 2+ goals
37%
Radomsko 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lechia T. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
62%
Radomsko (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia T. Mazowiecki at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.26 · 104 matches

Radomsko away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia T. Mazowiecki attack 1.77 + Radomsko defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.72

Radomsko attack 1.33 + Lechia T. Mazowiecki defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lechia T. Mazowiecki scores more
47%
level
24%
Radomsko scores more
29%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lechia T. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Radomsko

Radomsko beat Lechia T. Mazowiecki 4-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion im. Braci Gadajów in Tomaszów Mazowiecki.