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Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Bełchatów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Lechia T. Mazowiecki
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Bełchatów
Bełchatów
8/31/2025III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group I - 6Stadion im. Braci Gadajów

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Lechia T. Mazowiecki51%
×Draw23%
Bełchatów27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.88
Bełchatów
1.31

Lechia T. Mazowiecki creates 44% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 51 away

creates per match

Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.77
Bełchatów
1.37

allows per match

Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.26
Bełchatów
1.98

finishing

Lechia T. Mazowiecki+0.00on par
Bełchatów+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia T. Mazowiecki ↓

Bełchatów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Lechia T. Mazowiecki or draw
73%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki or Bełchatów
77%
Draw or Bełchatów
49%

Winning margin

Lechia T. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
28%
Bełchatów wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
85%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
56%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
29%
Bełchatów 1+ goals
73%
Bełchatów 2+ goals
38%
Bełchatów 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lechia T. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
65%
Bełchatów (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia T. Mazowiecki at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.26 · 104 matches

Bełchatów away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.98 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia T. Mazowiecki attack 1.77 + Bełchatów defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.88

Bełchatów attack 1.37 + Lechia T. Mazowiecki defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lechia T. Mazowiecki scores more
51%
level
23%
Bełchatów scores more
27%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lechia T. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1–2 Bełchatów

Bełchatów beat Lechia T. Mazowiecki 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 31, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion im. Braci Gadajów in Tomaszów Mazowiecki.