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Lechia Gdansk vs Zemplín Michalovce — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
CANC
13:00
Zemplín Michalovce
Zemplín Michalovce
2/2/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Lechia Gdansk44%
×Draw23%
Zemplín Michalovce33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Gdansk
1.73
Zemplín Michalovce
1.46

Lechia Gdansk creates 18% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 19 away

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk
1.25
Zemplín Michalovce
1.16

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk
1.75
Zemplín Michalovce
2.21

finishing

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par
Zemplín Michalovce+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Zemplín Michalovce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw
67%
Lechia Gdansk or Zemplín Michalovce
77%
Draw or Zemplín Michalovce
56%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
23%
Zemplín Michalovce wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
82%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
52%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
25%
Zemplín Michalovce 1+ goals
77%
Zemplín Michalovce 2+ goals
43%
Zemplín Michalovce 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
57%
Zemplín Michalovce (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Zemplín Michalovce away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.25 + Zemplín Michalovce defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.73

Zemplín Michalovce attack 1.16 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more
44%
level
23%
Zemplín Michalovce scores more
33%

Lechia Gdansk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lechia Gdansk face Zemplín Michalovce (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Lechia Gdansk hosting Zemplín Michalovce. Match starts February 2, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lechia Gdansk host Zemplín Michalovce at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.