Lechia Gdansk 2–1 Widzew Łódź: Result & Stats

Lechia Gdansk

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Widzew Łódź

T. Bobcek 90', 59'

S. Bergier 50'

11/8/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 15Polsat Plus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Lechia Gdansk42%

×Draw25%

Widzew Łódź34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lechia GdanskExpected goals in this matchWidzew Łódź

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.37

Lechia Gdansk

1.56

Widzew Łódź

1.37

Lechia Gdansk creates 14% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 30 away

1.59

creates per match

1.21

1.53

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.59

Widzew Łódź

1.21

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.53

Widzew Łódź

1.52

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Lechia Gdansk-0.02on par

Widzew Łódź+0.02on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Widzew Łódź →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw

66%

Lechia Gdansk or Widzew Łódź

75%

Draw or Widzew Łódź

58%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

21%

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

79%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

46%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

21%

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals

75%

Widzew Łódź 2+ goals

40%

Widzew Łódź 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

56%

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.53 · 21 matches

Widzew Łódź away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.52 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.59 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Widzew Łódź attack 1.21 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more

42%

level

25%

Widzew Łódź scores more

34%

Lechia Gdansk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

89

T. Bobcek

Lechia Gdansk · F

8.3

Match Events

20'

Dion Gallapeni

44'

Ángel Baena

50'

S. Bergier↳ J. Shehu

59'

T. Bobcek↳ K. Sezonienko

61'

Szymon Czyż

67'

S. Kozlovsky← D. Gallapeni

67'

S. Akere← M. Fornalczyk

72'

Rifet Kapić

77'

T. Teklic← F. Alvarez

77'

P. M. Ba← A. Baena Perez

90+1'

90+13'

90+11'

90+7'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LechiaWidzew

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots9

1.29Expected Goals (xG)1.29

5Corners3

14Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots9

3On Target3

4Off Target5

7Blocked1

10Inside Box6

4Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

396Total Passes383

329Accurate Passes301

83%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls11

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1