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Lechia Gdansk vs Stomil Olsztyn — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
FT
2 – 0
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
7/6/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion GOTiS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lechia Gdansk41%
×Draw26%
Stomil Olsztyn33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Gdansk
1.43
Stomil Olsztyn
1.27

Lechia Gdansk creates 13% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk
1.25
Stomil Olsztyn
0.80

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk
1.75
Stomil Olsztyn
1.60

finishing

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw
67%
Lechia Gdansk or Stomil Olsztyn
74%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
59%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
19%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
76%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
42%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
17%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
72%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
36%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
55%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.25 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.43

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.80 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more
41%
level
26%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
33%

Lechia Gdansk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lechia Gdansk vs Stomil Olsztyn

Lechia Gdansk beat Stomil Olsztyn 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion GOTiS in Gniewino.