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Lechia Gdansk vs Resovia Rzeszów — I Liga 2018

Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
FT
4 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Resovia Rzeszów
Resovia Rzeszów
3/4/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 22Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lechia Gdansk63%
×Draw21%
Resovia Rzeszów15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Gdansk
1.94
Resovia Rzeszów
0.83

Lechia Gdansk creates 134% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk
2.18
Resovia Rzeszów
1.19

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk
0.47
Resovia Rzeszów
1.69

finishing

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par
Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Resovia Rzeszów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw
85%
Lechia Gdansk or Resovia Rzeszów
79%
Draw or Resovia Rzeszów
37%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
38%
Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
86%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
58%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
30%
Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals
56%
Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals
20%
Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
80%
Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

Resovia Rzeszów away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 2.18 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.94

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.19 + Lechia Gdansk defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more
63%
level
21%
Resovia Rzeszów scores more
15%

Lechia Gdansk at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Lechia Gdansk 4–0 Resovia Rzeszów

Lechia Gdansk beat Resovia Rzeszów 4-0 in I Liga on March 4, 2024.

The match was played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk in Gdańsk.