Lechia Gdansk 2–2 Randers FC: Result & Stats

Lechia Gdansk

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Randers FC

7/18/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Lechia Gdansk32%

×Draw24%

Randers FC44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lechia GdanskExpected goals in this matchRanders FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.70

Lechia Gdansk

1.41

Randers FC

1.70

Randers FC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

1.31

creates per match

1.63

1.77

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.31

Randers FC

1.63

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.77

Randers FC

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Randers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Randers FC →

0–04%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw

56%

Lechia Gdansk or Randers FC

76%

Draw or Randers FC

68%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

14%

Randers FC wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

76%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

41%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

17%

Randers FC 1+ goals

82%

Randers FC 2+ goals

51%

Randers FC 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

42%

Randers FC (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Randers FC away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.31 + Randers FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Randers FC attack 1.63 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more

32%

level

24%

Randers FC scores more

44%

Randers FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Randers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Lechia

Randers

Manager: Vladyslav Lupashko

Lechia Gdansk substitutes

GutowskiBulaGorskiSzczerbinskiSonkoWojtowiczZiolkowskiZaborowskiKrawcewicz

Manager: Rasmus Bertelsen

Randers FC substitutes

22Demirci31Sommer14Lauenborg23Orn24Hansen25Seck26Lux33Edudzi9Hamawi38Albaek17Greve5Jones19Toure

Friendlies Clubs: Lechia Gdansk 2–2 Randers FC

Lechia Gdansk and Randers FC drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 18, 2026.

Lechia Gdansk vs Randers FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Lechia Gdansk 2–2 Randers FC