Lechia Gdansk 2–3 Chojniczanka Chojnice

Lechia Gdansk

FT

2 – 3

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1/13/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Boisko sportowe przy ulicy Traugutta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Lechia Gdansk27%

×Draw24%

Chojniczanka Chojnice49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lechia GdanskExpected goals in this matchChojniczanka Chojnice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.71

Lechia Gdansk

1.21

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.71

Chojniczanka Chojnice creates 41% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.25

creates per match

1.67

1.75

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.25

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.67

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.75

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Chojniczanka Chojnice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw

51%

Lechia Gdansk or Chojniczanka Chojnice

76%

Draw or Chojniczanka Chojnice

73%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

11%

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

70%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

34%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

12%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals

82%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals

51%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

36%

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.25 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.67 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more

27%

level

24%

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more

49%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff