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Lechia Gdańsk U19 vs Pogoń Szczecin U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Lechia Gdańsk U19
Lechia Gdańsk U19
FT
3 – 0
Pogoń Szczecin U19
Pogoń Szczecin U19
9/21/2024Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Lechia Gdańsk U1939%
×Draw21%
Pogoń Szczecin U1940%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Gdańsk U19
1.92
Pogoń Szczecin U19
1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 37 away

creates per match

Lechia Gdańsk U19
1.78
Pogoń Szczecin U19
1.78

allows per match

Lechia Gdańsk U19
2.11
Pogoń Szczecin U19
2.05

finishing

Lechia Gdańsk U19+0.00on par
Pogoń Szczecin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdańsk U19 ↓

Pogoń Szczecin U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Lechia Gdańsk U19 or draw
60%
Lechia Gdańsk U19 or Pogoń Szczecin U19
79%
Draw or Pogoń Szczecin U19
61%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdańsk U19 wins by 2+
21%
Pogoń Szczecin U19 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Lechia Gdańsk U19 1+ goals
85%
Lechia Gdańsk U19 2+ goals
57%
Lechia Gdańsk U19 3+ goals
30%
Pogoń Szczecin U19 1+ goals
86%
Pogoń Szczecin U19 2+ goals
58%
Pogoń Szczecin U19 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdańsk U19 (draw refunded)
50%
Pogoń Szczecin U19 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdańsk U19 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 2.11 · 37 matches

Pogoń Szczecin U19 away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdańsk U19 attack 1.78 + Pogoń Szczecin U19 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.92

Pogoń Szczecin U19 attack 1.78 + Lechia Gdańsk U19 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lechia Gdańsk U19 scores more
39%
level
21%
Pogoń Szczecin U19 scores more
40%

Pogoń Szczecin U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pogoń Szczecin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lechia Gdańsk U19 vs Pogoń Szczecin U19

Lechia Gdańsk U19 beat Pogoń Szczecin U19 3-0 in Central Youth League on September 21, 2024.