Lechia Gdańsk U18 3–1 Pogoń Szczecin U18

Lechia Gdańsk U18

FT

3 – 1

Pogoń Szczecin U18

10/14/2020

Central Youth League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Lechia Gdańsk U1831%

×Draw21%

Pogoń Szczecin U1848%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lechia Gdańsk U18Expected goals in this matchPogoń Szczecin U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

2.11

Lechia Gdańsk U18

1.67

Pogoń Szczecin U18

2.11

Pogoń Szczecin U18 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 38 away

1.65

creates per match

1.92

2.30

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Lechia Gdańsk U18

1.65

Pogoń Szczecin U18

1.92

allows per match

Lechia Gdańsk U18

2.30

Pogoń Szczecin U18

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lechia Gdańsk U18+0.00on par

Pogoń Szczecin U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdańsk U18 ↓

Pogoń Szczecin U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Lechia Gdańsk U18 or draw

52%

Lechia Gdańsk U18 or Pogoń Szczecin U18

79%

Draw or Pogoń Szczecin U18

69%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdańsk U18 wins by 2+

15%

Pogoń Szczecin U18 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Lechia Gdańsk U18 1+ goals

81%

Lechia Gdańsk U18 2+ goals

50%

Lechia Gdańsk U18 3+ goals

23%

Pogoń Szczecin U18 1+ goals

88%

Pogoń Szczecin U18 2+ goals

62%

Pogoń Szczecin U18 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdańsk U18 (draw refunded)

39%

Pogoń Szczecin U18 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdańsk U18 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.30 · 23 matches

Pogoń Szczecin U18 away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdańsk U18 attack 1.65 + Pogoń Szczecin U18 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.67

Pogoń Szczecin U18 attack 1.92 + Lechia Gdańsk U18 defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lechia Gdańsk U18 scores more

31%

level

21%

Pogoń Szczecin U18 scores more

48%

Pogoń Szczecin U18 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pogoń Szczecin U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff