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Lechia Gdańsk U18 vs Hutnik Kraków U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Lechia Gdańsk U18
Lechia Gdańsk U18
FT
3 – 2
Hutnik Kraków U18
Hutnik Kraków U18
3/14/2021Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lechia Gdańsk U1862%
×Draw18%
Hutnik Kraków U1820%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Gdańsk U18
2.69
Hutnik Kraków U18
1.51

Lechia Gdańsk U18 creates 78% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 15 away

creates per match

Lechia Gdańsk U18
1.65
Hutnik Kraków U18
0.73

allows per match

Lechia Gdańsk U18
2.30
Hutnik Kraków U18
3.73

finishing

Lechia Gdańsk U18+0.00on par
Hutnik Kraków U18+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdańsk U18 ↓

Hutnik Kraków U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Lechia Gdańsk U18 or draw
80%
Lechia Gdańsk U18 or Hutnik Kraków U18
82%
Draw or Hutnik Kraków U18
38%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdańsk U18 wins by 2+
41%
Hutnik Kraków U18 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lechia Gdańsk U18 1+ goals
93%
Lechia Gdańsk U18 2+ goals
74%
Lechia Gdańsk U18 3+ goals
49%
Hutnik Kraków U18 1+ goals
78%
Hutnik Kraków U18 2+ goals
44%
Hutnik Kraków U18 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdańsk U18 (draw refunded)
75%
Hutnik Kraków U18 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdańsk U18 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.30 · 23 matches

Hutnik Kraków U18 away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdańsk U18 attack 1.65 + Hutnik Kraków U18 defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.69

Hutnik Kraków U18 attack 0.73 + Lechia Gdańsk U18 defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Lechia Gdańsk U18 scores more
62%
level
18%
Hutnik Kraków U18 scores more
20%

Lechia Gdańsk U18 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Lechia Gdańsk U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lechia Gdańsk U18 vs Hutnik Kraków U18

Lechia Gdańsk U18 beat Hutnik Kraków U18 3-2 in Central Youth League on March 14, 2021.