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Lech Poznan vs Olmaliq — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Olmaliq
Olmaliq
1/24/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lech Poznan45%
×Draw25%
Olmaliq30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lech Poznan
1.54
Olmaliq
1.21

Lech Poznan creates 27% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

creates per match

Lech Poznan
1.58
Olmaliq
1.25

allows per match

Lech Poznan
1.17
Olmaliq
1.50

finishing

Lech Poznan+0.00on par
Olmaliq+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznan ↓

Olmaliq →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lech Poznan or draw
70%
Lech Poznan or Olmaliq
75%
Draw or Olmaliq
55%

Winning margin

Lech Poznan wins by 2+
23%
Olmaliq wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lech Poznan 1+ goals
79%
Lech Poznan 2+ goals
45%
Lech Poznan 3+ goals
20%
Olmaliq 1+ goals
70%
Olmaliq 2+ goals
34%
Olmaliq 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)
60%
Olmaliq (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznan at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Olmaliq away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznan attack 1.58 + Olmaliq defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Olmaliq attack 1.25 + Lech Poznan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lech Poznan scores more
45%
level
25%
Olmaliq scores more
30%

Lech Poznan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Lech
Olmaliq
Niels Frederiksen
Manager: Niels Frederiksen
Mirdzhalol Kasymov
Manager: Mirdzhalol Kasymov

Match Recap: Lech Poznan vs Olmaliq

Lech Poznan beat Olmaliq 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 24, 2026.