Lech Poznan 4–1 Nieciecza: Result & Stats

Lech Poznan

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Nieciecza

T. Ismaheel 87'

A. Gholizadeh 37'

L. Bengtsson 36', 33'

G. Isik 65'

3/22/2026

Ekstraklasa · Round 26Stadion Poznan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Lech Poznan51%

×Draw22%

Nieciecza27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lech PoznanExpected goals in this matchNieciecza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.35

Lech Poznan

1.94

Nieciecza

1.35

Lech Poznan creates 44% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 12 away

2.02

creates per match

1.42

1.28

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Lech Poznan

2.02

Nieciecza

1.42

allows per match

Lech Poznan

1.28

Nieciecza

1.85

+0.45scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Lech Poznan+0.45scores more

Nieciecza-0.09on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznan ↓

Nieciecza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Lech Poznan or draw

73%

Lech Poznan or Nieciecza

78%

Draw or Nieciecza

49%

Winning margin

Lech Poznan wins by 2+

29%

Nieciecza wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lech Poznan 1+ goals

86%

Lech Poznan 2+ goals

58%

Lech Poznan 3+ goals

30%

Nieciecza 1+ goals

74%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

39%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)

66%

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznan at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.85 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznan attack 2.02 + Nieciecza defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.94

Nieciecza attack 1.42 + Lech Poznan defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lech Poznan scores more

51%

level

22%

Nieciecza scores more

27%

Lech Poznan at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Gholizadeh

Lech Poznan · M

9.2

Match Events

9'

Patrik WålemarkGoal cancelled

33'

L. Bengtsson

36'

L. Bengtsson

37'

A. Gholizadeh↳ P. Rodriguez

52'

Krzysztof Kubica

53'

M. Fassbender← S. Guerrero

53'

K. Zapolnik← I. Durdov

53'

L. Masoero← D. Biniek

60'

L. Palma← P. Walemark

60'

G. Thordarson← P. Rodriguez

65'

G. Isik

71'

Miłosz Matysik

78'

T. Ismaheel← A. Gholizadeh

79'

Krzysztof Kubica

79'

Krzysztof Kubica

81'

I. Strzalek← J. Jimenez

82'

Artem Putivtsev

84'

Y. Agnero← M. Ishak

84'

S. Dudek← L. Bengtsson

87'

T. Ismaheel↳ G. Thordarson

90+1'

Lucas Masoero

90'

W. Jakubik← D. Hilbrycht

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LechNieciecza

Overview

67%Possession33%

26Total Shots9

3.58Expected Goals (xG)1.23

6Corners5

7Fouls17

Shots

26Total Shots9

9On Target4

10Off Target3

7Blocked2

15Inside Box5

11Outside Box4

Passing

67%Possession33%

560Total Passes271

499Accurate Passes203

89%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

-1.28Goals Prevented-1.28

Discipline

7Fouls17

0Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1