Lech Poznan 0–1 FC Noah: Result & Stats

Lech Poznan

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC Noah

1/24/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Lech Poznan54%

×Draw25%

FC Noah21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lech PoznanExpected goals in this matchFC Noah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.89

Lech Poznan

1.60

FC Noah

0.89

Lech Poznan creates 80% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.64

creates per match

0.78

1.00

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Lech Poznan

1.64

FC Noah

0.78

allows per match

Lech Poznan

1.00

FC Noah

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lech Poznan+0.00on par

FC Noah+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznan ↓

FC Noah →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lech Poznan or draw

79%

Lech Poznan or FC Noah

75%

Draw or FC Noah

46%

Winning margin

Lech Poznan wins by 2+

29%

FC Noah wins by 2+

Team goals

Lech Poznan 1+ goals

80%

Lech Poznan 2+ goals

47%

Lech Poznan 3+ goals

22%

FC Noah 1+ goals

59%

FC Noah 2+ goals

22%

FC Noah 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)

72%

FC Noah (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

FC Noah away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznan attack 1.64 + FC Noah defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.60

FC Noah attack 0.78 + Lech Poznan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lech Poznan scores more

54%

level

25%

FC Noah scores more

21%

Lech Poznan at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff