Lech Poznan 1–0 Bodo/Glimt: Result & Stats

Lech Poznan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bodo/Glimt

M. Ishak 62'

2/23/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · Knockout Round Play-offsStadion Poznań

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lech Poznan51%

×Draw23%

Bodo/Glimt26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lech PoznanExpected goals in this matchBodo/Glimt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.21

Lech Poznan

1.78

Bodo/Glimt

1.21

Lech Poznan creates 47% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

2.13

creates per match

1.63

0.80

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Lech Poznan

2.13

Bodo/Glimt

1.63

allows per match

Lech Poznan

0.80

Bodo/Glimt

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lech Poznan+0.00on par

Bodo/Glimt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznan ↓

Bodo/Glimt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Lech Poznan or draw

74%

Lech Poznan or Bodo/Glimt

77%

Draw or Bodo/Glimt

49%

Winning margin

Lech Poznan wins by 2+

28%

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lech Poznan 1+ goals

83%

Lech Poznan 2+ goals

53%

Lech Poznan 3+ goals

26%

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals

70%

Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals

34%

Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)

66%

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznan at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Bodo/Glimt away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznan attack 2.13 + Bodo/Glimt defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.78

Bodo/Glimt attack 1.63 + Lech Poznan defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lech Poznan scores more

51%

level

23%

Bodo/Glimt scores more

26%

Lech Poznan at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Joel Pereira

Lech Poznan · D

7.6

Match Events

40'

Joel Pereira

46'

F. Dagerstål← B. Salamon

61'

Patrick Berg

62'

M. Ishak↳ Joel Pereira

69'

R. Espejord← F. Moumbagna

76'

N. Žugelj← J. Mvuka

79'

F. Marchwiński← M. Ishak

85'

A. Czerwiński← A. Ba Loua

85'

A. Sobiech← F. Szymczak

89'

Nino Žugelj

90'

N. Kvekveskiri← Afonso Sousa

90+2'

L. Salvesen← M. Lode

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LechBodo/Glimt

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots14

0.54Expected Goals (xG)1.28

5Corners7

12Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots14

3On Target1

4Off Target6

3Blocked7

6Inside Box10

4Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

387Total Passes458

329Accurate Passes386

85%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1