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Lech Poznań U19 vs Warta Poznań U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Lech Poznań U19
Lech Poznań U19
FT
2 – 1
Warta Poznań U19
Warta Poznań U19
12/2/2023Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Lech Poznań U1965%
×Draw17%
Warta Poznań U1917%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lech Poznań U19
2.68
Warta Poznań U19
1.34

Lech Poznań U19 creates 100% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 30 away

creates per match

Lech Poznań U19
2.53
Warta Poznań U19
1.47

allows per match

Lech Poznań U19
1.21
Warta Poznań U19
2.83

finishing

Lech Poznań U19+0.00on par
Warta Poznań U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań U19 ↓

Warta Poznań U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Lech Poznań U19 or draw
83%
Lech Poznań U19 or Warta Poznań U19
83%
Draw or Warta Poznań U19
35%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań U19 wins by 2+
44%
Warta Poznań U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lech Poznań U19 1+ goals
93%
Lech Poznań U19 2+ goals
74%
Lech Poznań U19 3+ goals
49%
Warta Poznań U19 1+ goals
74%
Warta Poznań U19 2+ goals
39%
Warta Poznań U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań U19 (draw refunded)
79%
Warta Poznań U19 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań U19 at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.21 · 53 matches

Warta Poznań U19 away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań U19 attack 2.53 + Warta Poznań U19 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.68

Warta Poznań U19 attack 1.47 + Lech Poznań U19 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Lech Poznań U19 scores more
65%
level
17%
Warta Poznań U19 scores more
17%

Lech Poznań U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lech Poznań U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Lech Poznań U19 2–1 Warta Poznań U19

Lech Poznań U19 beat Warta Poznań U19 2-1 in Central Youth League on December 2, 2023.