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Lech Poznań U19 vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Lech Poznań U19
Lech Poznań U19
FT
2 – 1
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
11/4/2023Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lech Poznań U1972%
×Draw15%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U1913%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lech Poznań U19
2.90
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
1.17

Lech Poznań U19 creates 148% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 15 away

creates per match

Lech Poznań U19
2.53
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
1.13

allows per match

Lech Poznań U19
1.21
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
3.27

finishing

Lech Poznań U19+0.00on par
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań U19 ↓

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Lech Poznań U19 or draw
87%
Lech Poznań U19 or Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
85%
Draw or Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
28%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań U19 wins by 2+
52%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lech Poznań U19 1+ goals
94%
Lech Poznań U19 2+ goals
78%
Lech Poznań U19 3+ goals
54%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 1+ goals
69%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 2+ goals
33%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań U19 (draw refunded)
85%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań U19 at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.21 · 53 matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań U19 attack 2.53 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 2.90

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 attack 1.13 + Lech Poznań U19 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Lech Poznań U19 scores more
72%
level
15%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 scores more
13%

Lech Poznań U19 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Lech Poznań U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Lech Poznań U19 2–1 Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

Lech Poznań U19 beat Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 2-1 in Central Youth League on November 4, 2023.