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Lech Poznań U19 vs Korona Kielce U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Lech Poznań U19
Lech Poznań U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Korona Kielce U19
Korona Kielce U19
4/15/2023Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Lech Poznań U1958%
×Draw19%
Korona Kielce U1923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lech Poznań U19
2.51
Korona Kielce U19
1.54

Lech Poznań U19 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 22 away

creates per match

Lech Poznań U19
2.53
Korona Kielce U19
1.86

allows per match

Lech Poznań U19
1.21
Korona Kielce U19
2.50

finishing

Lech Poznań U19+0.00on par
Korona Kielce U19+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań U19 ↓

Korona Kielce U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Lech Poznań U19 or draw
77%
Lech Poznań U19 or Korona Kielce U19
81%
Draw or Korona Kielce U19
42%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań U19 wins by 2+
38%
Korona Kielce U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lech Poznań U19 1+ goals
92%
Lech Poznań U19 2+ goals
71%
Lech Poznań U19 3+ goals
45%
Korona Kielce U19 1+ goals
79%
Korona Kielce U19 2+ goals
45%
Korona Kielce U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań U19 (draw refunded)
72%
Korona Kielce U19 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań U19 at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.21 · 53 matches

Korona Kielce U19 away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań U19 attack 2.53 + Korona Kielce U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.51

Korona Kielce U19 attack 1.86 + Lech Poznań U19 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Lech Poznań U19 scores more
58%
level
19%
Korona Kielce U19 scores more
23%

Lech Poznań U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Lech Poznań U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lech Poznań U19 vs Korona Kielce U19

Lech Poznań U19 beat Korona Kielce U19 3-1 in Central Youth League on April 15, 2023.