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Lech Poznań U19 vs Jagiellonia U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Lech Poznań U19
Lech Poznań U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jagiellonia U19
Jagiellonia U19
3/22/2025Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Lech Poznań U1956%
×Draw20%
Jagiellonia U1924%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lech Poznań U19
2.26
Jagiellonia U19
1.42

Lech Poznań U19 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 53 away

creates per match

Lech Poznań U19
2.53
Jagiellonia U19
1.64

allows per match

Lech Poznań U19
1.21
Jagiellonia U19
2.00

finishing

Lech Poznań U19+0.00on par
Jagiellonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań U19 ↓

Jagiellonia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Lech Poznań U19 or draw
76%
Lech Poznań U19 or Jagiellonia U19
80%
Draw or Jagiellonia U19
44%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań U19 wins by 2+
35%
Jagiellonia U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lech Poznań U19 1+ goals
89%
Lech Poznań U19 2+ goals
66%
Lech Poznań U19 3+ goals
39%
Jagiellonia U19 1+ goals
76%
Jagiellonia U19 2+ goals
41%
Jagiellonia U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań U19 (draw refunded)
70%
Jagiellonia U19 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań U19 at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.21 · 53 matches

Jagiellonia U19 away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.00 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań U19 attack 2.53 + Jagiellonia U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.26

Jagiellonia U19 attack 1.64 + Lech Poznań U19 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lech Poznań U19 scores more
56%
level
20%
Jagiellonia U19 scores more
24%

Lech Poznań U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lech Poznań U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lech Poznań U19 vs Jagiellonia U19

Lech Poznań U19 beat Jagiellonia U19 1-0 in Central Youth League on March 22, 2025.