Lech Poznań U19 5–0 Cracovia U19: Result & Stats

Lech Poznań U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Cracovia U19

11/26/2022

Central Youth League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Lech Poznań U1961%

×Draw18%

Cracovia U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lech Poznań U19Expected goals in this matchCracovia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.53

1.40

Lech Poznań U19

2.53

Cracovia U19

1.40

Lech Poznań U19 creates 81% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 38 away

2.53

creates per match

1.58

1.21

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

Lech Poznań U19

2.53

Cracovia U19

1.58

allows per match

Lech Poznań U19

1.21

Cracovia U19

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lech Poznań U19+0.00on par

Cracovia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań U19 ↓

Cracovia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Lech Poznań U19 or draw

80%

Lech Poznań U19 or Cracovia U19

82%

Draw or Cracovia U19

39%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań U19 wins by 2+

40%

Cracovia U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lech Poznań U19 1+ goals

92%

Lech Poznań U19 2+ goals

71%

Lech Poznań U19 3+ goals

46%

Cracovia U19 1+ goals

75%

Cracovia U19 2+ goals

41%

Cracovia U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Cracovia U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań U19 at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.21 · 53 matches

Cracovia U19 away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań U19 attack 2.53 + Cracovia U19 defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.53

Cracovia U19 attack 1.58 + Lech Poznań U19 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Lech Poznań U19 scores more

61%

level

18%

Cracovia U19 scores more

20%

Lech Poznań U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Lech Poznań U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff