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Lech Poznań U18 vs Pogoń Szczecin U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Lech Poznań U18
Lech Poznań U18
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Pogoń Szczecin U18
Pogoń Szczecin U18
3/19/2022Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Lech Poznań U1846%
×Draw22%
Pogoń Szczecin U1831%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lech Poznań U18
1.91
Pogoń Szczecin U18
1.54

Lech Poznań U18 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 38 away

creates per match

Lech Poznań U18
2.14
Pogoń Szczecin U18
1.92

allows per match

Lech Poznań U18
1.16
Pogoń Szczecin U18
1.68

finishing

Lech Poznań U18+0.00on par
Pogoń Szczecin U18+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań U18 ↓

Pogoń Szczecin U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Lech Poznań U18 or draw
69%
Lech Poznań U18 or Pogoń Szczecin U18
78%
Draw or Pogoń Szczecin U18
54%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań U18 wins by 2+
26%
Pogoń Szczecin U18 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lech Poznań U18 1+ goals
85%
Lech Poznań U18 2+ goals
57%
Lech Poznań U18 3+ goals
30%
Pogoń Szczecin U18 1+ goals
79%
Pogoń Szczecin U18 2+ goals
45%
Pogoń Szczecin U18 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań U18 (draw refunded)
60%
Pogoń Szczecin U18 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań U18 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

Pogoń Szczecin U18 away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań U18 attack 2.14 + Pogoń Szczecin U18 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.91

Pogoń Szczecin U18 attack 1.92 + Lech Poznań U18 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lech Poznań U18 scores more
46%
level
22%
Pogoń Szczecin U18 scores more
31%

Lech Poznań U18 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lech Poznań U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Lech Poznań U18 4–2 Pogoń Szczecin U18

Lech Poznań U18 beat Pogoń Szczecin U18 4-2 in Central Youth League on March 19, 2022.