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Lech Poznań U18 vs Korona Kielce U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Lech Poznań U18
Lech Poznań U18
FT
3 – 2
Korona Kielce U18
Korona Kielce U18
9/27/2020Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Lech Poznań U1856%
×Draw20%
Korona Kielce U1824%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lech Poznań U18
2.29
Korona Kielce U18
1.43

Lech Poznań U18 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 23 away

creates per match

Lech Poznań U18
2.14
Korona Kielce U18
1.70

allows per match

Lech Poznań U18
1.16
Korona Kielce U18
2.43

finishing

Lech Poznań U18+0.00on par
Korona Kielce U18+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań U18 ↓

Korona Kielce U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Lech Poznań U18 or draw
76%
Lech Poznań U18 or Korona Kielce U18
80%
Draw or Korona Kielce U18
44%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań U18 wins by 2+
35%
Korona Kielce U18 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lech Poznań U18 1+ goals
90%
Lech Poznań U18 2+ goals
66%
Lech Poznań U18 3+ goals
40%
Korona Kielce U18 1+ goals
76%
Korona Kielce U18 2+ goals
42%
Korona Kielce U18 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań U18 (draw refunded)
71%
Korona Kielce U18 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań U18 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

Korona Kielce U18 away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.43 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań U18 attack 2.14 + Korona Kielce U18 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.29

Korona Kielce U18 attack 1.70 + Lech Poznań U18 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lech Poznań U18 scores more
56%
level
20%
Korona Kielce U18 scores more
24%

Lech Poznań U18 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lech Poznań U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Lech Poznań U18 3–2 Korona Kielce U18

Lech Poznań U18 beat Korona Kielce U18 3-2 in Central Youth League on September 27, 2020.