Lech Poznań U18 2–2 Jagiellonia U18: Result & Stats

Lech Poznań U18

FT

2 – 2

Jagiellonia U18

8/23/2020

Central Youth League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Lech Poznań U1849%

×Draw22%

Jagiellonia U1829%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lech Poznań U18Expected goals in this matchJagiellonia U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.47

Lech Poznań U18

1.94

Jagiellonia U18

1.47

Lech Poznań U18 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 37 away

2.14

creates per match

1.78

1.16

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Lech Poznań U18

2.14

Jagiellonia U18

1.78

allows per match

Lech Poznań U18

1.16

Jagiellonia U18

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lech Poznań U18+0.00on par

Jagiellonia U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań U18 ↓

Jagiellonia U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Lech Poznań U18 or draw

71%

Lech Poznań U18 or Jagiellonia U18

78%

Draw or Jagiellonia U18

51%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań U18 wins by 2+

27%

Jagiellonia U18 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lech Poznań U18 1+ goals

86%

Lech Poznań U18 2+ goals

58%

Lech Poznań U18 3+ goals

30%

Jagiellonia U18 1+ goals

77%

Jagiellonia U18 2+ goals

43%

Jagiellonia U18 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań U18 (draw refunded)

62%

Jagiellonia U18 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań U18 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

Jagiellonia U18 away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.73 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań U18 attack 2.14 + Jagiellonia U18 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.94

Jagiellonia U18 attack 1.78 + Lech Poznań U18 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lech Poznań U18 scores more

49%

level

22%

Jagiellonia U18 scores more

29%

Lech Poznań U18 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lech Poznań U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff