Lech Poznań U18 0–1 Gwarek Zabrze U18

Lech Poznań U18

FT

0 – 1

Gwarek Zabrze U18

3/7/2021

Central Youth League · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Lech Poznań U1869%

×Draw17%

Gwarek Zabrze U1814%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lech Poznań U18Expected goals in this matchGwarek Zabrze U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.49

1.03

Lech Poznań U18

2.49

Gwarek Zabrze U18

1.03

Lech Poznań U18 creates 142% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 30 away

2.14

creates per match

0.90

1.16

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Lech Poznań U18

2.14

Gwarek Zabrze U18

0.90

allows per match

Lech Poznań U18

1.16

Gwarek Zabrze U18

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lech Poznań U18+0.00on par

Gwarek Zabrze U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań U18 ↓

Gwarek Zabrze U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Lech Poznań U18 or draw

86%

Lech Poznań U18 or Gwarek Zabrze U18

83%

Draw or Gwarek Zabrze U18

31%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań U18 wins by 2+

47%

Gwarek Zabrze U18 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Lech Poznań U18 1+ goals

92%

Lech Poznań U18 2+ goals

71%

Lech Poznań U18 3+ goals

45%

Gwarek Zabrze U18 1+ goals

64%

Gwarek Zabrze U18 2+ goals

28%

Gwarek Zabrze U18 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań U18 (draw refunded)

83%

Gwarek Zabrze U18 (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań U18 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

Gwarek Zabrze U18 away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań U18 attack 2.14 + Gwarek Zabrze U18 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.49

Gwarek Zabrze U18 attack 0.90 + Lech Poznań U18 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Lech Poznań U18 scores more

69%

level

17%

Gwarek Zabrze U18 scores more

14%

Lech Poznań U18 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Lech Poznań U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff