Lech Poznań U18 1–1 Escola Varsovia U18

Lech Poznań U18

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Escola Varsovia U18

11/5/2022

Central Youth League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Lech Poznań U1850%

×Draw22%

Escola Varsovia U1827%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lech Poznań U18Expected goals in this matchEscola Varsovia U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.38

Lech Poznań U18

1.94

Escola Varsovia U18

1.38

Lech Poznań U18 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 22 away

2.14

creates per match

1.59

1.16

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Lech Poznań U18

2.14

Escola Varsovia U18

1.59

allows per match

Lech Poznań U18

1.16

Escola Varsovia U18

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lech Poznań U18+0.00on par

Escola Varsovia U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań U18 ↓

Escola Varsovia U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Lech Poznań U18 or draw

73%

Lech Poznań U18 or Escola Varsovia U18

78%

Draw or Escola Varsovia U18

50%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań U18 wins by 2+

29%

Escola Varsovia U18 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lech Poznań U18 1+ goals

86%

Lech Poznań U18 2+ goals

58%

Lech Poznań U18 3+ goals

30%

Escola Varsovia U18 1+ goals

75%

Escola Varsovia U18 2+ goals

40%

Escola Varsovia U18 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań U18 (draw refunded)

65%

Escola Varsovia U18 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań U18 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

Escola Varsovia U18 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań U18 attack 2.14 + Escola Varsovia U18 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.94

Escola Varsovia U18 attack 1.59 + Lech Poznań U18 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lech Poznań U18 scores more

50%

level

22%

Escola Varsovia U18 scores more

27%

Lech Poznań U18 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lech Poznań U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff