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Lech Poznań II vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz — II Liga - East 2019

Lech Poznań II
Lech Poznań II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
5/18/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 33Stadion Amiki Wronki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Lech Poznań II36%
×Draw25%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lech Poznań II
1.37
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 36 away

creates per match

Lech Poznań II
1.35
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.33

allows per match

Lech Poznań II
1.49
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.39

finishing

Lech Poznań II+0.00on par
Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań II ↓

Sandecja Nowy Sącz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lech Poznań II or draw
62%
Lech Poznań II or Sandecja Nowy Sącz
75%
Draw or Sandecja Nowy Sącz
64%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań II wins by 2+
17%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lech Poznań II 1+ goals
75%
Lech Poznań II 2+ goals
40%
Lech Poznań II 3+ goals
16%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals
76%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals
41%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań II (draw refunded)
49%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.49 · 85 matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań II attack 1.35 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.37

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.33 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lech Poznań II scores more
36%
level
25%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more
38%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sandecja Nowy Sącz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lech Poznań II vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Sandecja Nowy Sącz beat Lech Poznań II 1-0 in II Liga - East on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Amiki Wronki in Wronki.