Lech Poznań II 1–3 Górnik Polkowice: Result & Stats

Lech Poznań II

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Górnik Polkowice

H. Sobol 51'

M. Magdziak 90'

E. Sobków 85' (pen), 23'

9/26/2020

II Liga - East · Round 5Stadion Amiki Wronki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Lech Poznań II35%

×Draw25%

Górnik Polkowice40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lech Poznań IIExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.44

Lech Poznań II

1.33

Górnik Polkowice

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 53 away

1.35

creates per match

1.40

1.49

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Lech Poznań II

1.35

Górnik Polkowice

1.40

allows per match

Lech Poznań II

1.49

Górnik Polkowice

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lech Poznań II+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań II ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lech Poznań II or draw

60%

Lech Poznań II or Górnik Polkowice

75%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

65%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań II wins by 2+

15%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Lech Poznań II 1+ goals

74%

Lech Poznań II 2+ goals

38%

Lech Poznań II 3+ goals

15%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

76%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

42%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań II (draw refunded)

47%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.49 · 85 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań II attack 1.35 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.40 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lech Poznań II scores more

35%

level

25%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

40%

Górnik Polkowice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

E. Sobków

42'

Suszkiewicz

46'

K. Muhar← F. Marchwiński

46'

V. Kravets← T. Dejewski

46'

E. Kryg← M. Awaed

51'

H. Sobol

65'

A. Kaczmarek← T. Klupś

76'

E. Terpiłowski← M. Baszak

80'

Ł. Szramowski← J. Karbownik

81'

B. Żołądź← M. Szuszkiewicz

82'

M. Magdziak← F. Baranowski

85'

E. SobkówPenalty

87'

E. Kryg

90'

A. Borkowski← K. Wacławczyk

90'

M. Magdziak

Lech

Górnik

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: R. Ulatowski

46'▲K. Muhar←▼F. Marchwiński

46'▲V. Kravets←▼T. Dejewski

46'▲E. Kryg←▼M. Awaed

65'▲A. Kaczmarek←▼T. Klupś

80'▲Ł. Szramowski←▼J. Karbownik

Lech Poznań II substitutes

MuharKravetsKrygKaczmarekSzramowski

Manager: J. Niedźwiedź

76'▲E. Terpiłowski←▼M. Baszak

81'▲B. Żołądź←▼M. Szuszkiewicz

82'▲M. Magdziak←▼F. Baranowski

90'▲A. Borkowski←▼K. Wacławczyk

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

TerpiłowskiŻołądźMagdziakBorkowski

II Liga - East: Lech Poznań II 1–3 Górnik Polkowice

Górnik Polkowice beat Lech Poznań II 3-1 in II Liga - East on September 26, 2020.

Goals: E. Sobków (23', 85' pen), H. Sobol (51'), M. Magdziak (90').

The match was played at Stadion Amiki Wronki in Wronki.

Lech Poznań II vs Górnik Polkowice — II Liga - East 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

II Liga - East: Lech Poznań II 1–3 Górnik Polkowice